Singapore Food Prices Rose in September While Café Sales Fell: What It Means for Your Shop

Updated 2026-10-23

In short MAS figures released on 23 October 2026 show Singapore food inflation rose to 2.4% in September, while overall inflation eased to 2.2%. With café sales down 5.3% year on year in August, owners face higher costs and softer sales. Recheck what your rewards cost and protect your regulars before discounting.

What did MAS publish?

On 23 October 2026, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry released Consumer Price Developments in September 2026. The main figures:

Measure	August 2026	September 2026
MAS Core Inflation (year on year)	2.2%	2.0%
All-items inflation (year on year)	2.3%	2.2%
Food inflation (year on year)	2.3%	2.4%
Electricity and gas inflation (year on year)	8.7%	8.7%

The report says food inflation rose “due to higher inflation in both non-cooked food and food services”. Its outlook expects global and regional food prices to “pick up as costlier inputs and adverse weather patterns affect food production”. It also says energy prices “are projected to remain high in the near term”. MAS forecasts core inflation of 1.5% to 2.0% for 2026 and 1.5% to 2.5% for 2027.

Why does this matter if you run a café or restaurant?

Overall prices are rising more slowly. Your costs are not. Food and electricity are two of the largest bills in any kitchen, and both are moving the wrong way.

At the same time, sales are soft. The Singapore Department of Statistics figures for August 2026, published on 5 October, show F&B services sales down 1.6% year on year. Cafés were down 5.3%, food courts and other eating places down 4.8%, and restaurants down 2.1%. Fast food outlets were the exception, up 7.8%.

Putting the two releases together is our reading, not something either agency says. It points to a squeeze: ingredients and power cost more, while fewer dollars are coming through the door at cafés and sit-down restaurants.

What should an owner do about it?

Check what your rewards cost you now

Many café rewards are a free item: “buy 9, get the 10th free”. The cost of that reward is the cost of making the item. When milk, beans and power rise, every free coffee costs you more, with no change on the card.

Rewards set in dollars behave differently. “100 points = S$5 off” costs you S$5 of revenue whatever happens to your ingredient prices. Neither is wrong. Know which one you run, and recalculate the cost of a reward this month. Our guide to points-based loyalty programs shows how to work out what a program gives back as a share of spend.

Protect the regulars before chasing new customers

When sales fall, the reflex is a broad discount to pull in new faces. A discount gives margin away to everyone, including people who would have paid full price. With costs rising, that margin is harder to give.

A regular who already comes twice a week is the cheapest sale you can make. Rewarding that customer for a third visit costs less than paying to attract a stranger. A loyalty program is the tool for this. It only works if staff record every purchase, so keep the counter step fast.

If you raise prices, tell your members first

Many owners will adjust menu prices as costs rise. Your members are the customers most likely to notice and most likely to forgive a small increase. A note at the counter or on the receipt, and a reward that still feels reachable, does more than a silent change to the menu board.

Do not cut the reward quietly

Raising the number of points needed for a reward, without saying so, is the fastest way to lose trust in a program. If the numbers no longer work, change them openly and give members notice.

What does this mean for café owners specifically?

Cafés had the weakest August of the segments SingStat reports. Some of that may be customers trading down to cheaper options, which fits the rise in fast food sales. That link is our inference. The figures do not show why.

If your café depends on a core of daily regulars, those customers are worth protecting now. Our page on loyalty programs for cafés covers how to set a reward that is generous enough to matter and cheap enough to sustain. For the cost of the software itself, see what free loyalty apps actually include.

SingStat released the August figures on 5 October. If it keeps to that rhythm, the September F&B figures will follow in early November.

Questions owners ask

What was Singapore's food inflation in September 2026?

Food inflation was 2.4% year on year in September 2026, up from 2.3% in August, according to MAS and the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry. Both non-cooked food and food services rose faster.

Are café sales in Singapore falling?

Yes. SingStat's August 2026 figures show café sales down 5.3% year on year, against a 1.6% fall for F&B services overall. Fast food outlets grew 7.8% over the same period.

Should I cut prices or run discounts when sales are soft?

A broad discount gives margin to every customer, including those who would pay full price. With food and energy costs rising, rewarding existing regulars for an extra visit usually costs less than discounting to attract new customers.

Does a free-item reward cost more when ingredient prices rise?

Yes. A free coffee costs you what it costs to make, so it rises with milk, beans and power. A reward set in dollars, such as S$5 off, costs the same amount of revenue whatever your ingredient prices do.